The danger with using seismic amplitudes to suggest hydrocarbon presence at a prospect, is that workers often guess the impact on the Chance of Success (CoS), even after all the solid technical work that has presumably been done. Seismic amplitudes that represent hydrocarbon porefill may exhibit characteristics such as ‘structural conformity’; ‘flatspots’; ‘AvO anomalies’; and ‘dispersion’. However, each of these facets of an amplitude anomaly is fallible so how can you prevent wells being drilled on ‘false indicators’?

Synthetic AvO modelling is an essential technique for helping to interpret candidate hydrocarbon porefill amplitudes. By breaking out the risking into a set of plausible scenarios, synthetic models can be created and compared quantitatively to the anomalous seismic response. Rigorous statistical methods can be applied to update the prospect risk from the existing geological risk assessment.

bayes tree logo 300BayesTree™ is QIntegral’s proprietary (Windows) software for updating prospect risk assessments following a multi-faceted seismic amplitude analysis. It is fully integrated with traditional geologic risking and uses scenario-thinking and Bayes’ rule to achieve consistent and rigorous risk updates across a prospect portfolio.

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